
Progress, Not Regress
2026: Are We There Yet?
"Before 1985, you’d have had no idea how long it would take to install a program on your computer—or to save a file, or to complete an online form. (To be fair, there were no online forms.) Consider the history of the progress bar, then discuss with your team: what other activities and interactions in life would benefit from a progress bar?"
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In the early days of computing, users often had no feedback while programs were loading.
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People could not tell if the computer was thinking or if it had crashed.
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In 1985, computer science student Brad A. Myers created the idea of a “percent-done progress indicator.”
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Myers tested his idea with 48 students who used a computer database.
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Some students used the system with a progress bar, while others used it without one.
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The progress bar looked like a capsule that filled from left to right, similar to a thermometer.
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86% of the students said they preferred having a progress bar.
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Progress bars help reassure users that the computer is still working.
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The article compares progress bars to placebo buttons in cities, such as some crosswalk buttons.
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These buttons sometimes do nothing, but they still make people feel more in control.
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Bars are not the only way to pass time. Explore the following alternatives to the standard progress bar, then discuss with your team: what are the advantages and disadvantages of each approach?
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indeterminate progress bar: ​​
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An indeterminate progress bar is a loading bar that moves but does not show a percentage.
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It does not tell the user how long the task will take.
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It is used when the computer cannot estimate the time needed to finish the task.
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The bar usually moves back and forth or shows a repeating animation.
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Designers use indeterminate progress bars during tasks like loading data or connecting to the internet.
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Even though the exact progress is unknown, the animation reassures users that something is happening.
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splash screen: ​​​
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A splash screen is the first screen that appears when a program or app starts.
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It usually shows the logo or name of the company or program.
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The splash screen appears while the program is loading in the background.
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Splash screens often include images, animations, or simple graphics.
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Some splash screens also show loading messages or tips.
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After the program finishes loading, the splash screen disappears and the main screen opens.
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console output: ​​​
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Console output is text that a computer program prints on the screen.
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It usually appears in a simple window called the console or terminal.
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Programmers use console output to show messages or results from a program.
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It can display information like numbers, errors, or instructions.
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Console output helps programmers check if their program is working correctly.
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In early computers, console output was one of the main ways users saw information.
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The text appears line by line as the program runs.
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skeleton screen: ​​​
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A skeleton screen is a temporary layout that appears while a webpage or app is loading.
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It shows simple shapes that look like the final content.
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These shapes represent where text, images, or buttons will appear.
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Skeleton screens help users see the structure of the page before the real content loads.
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Designers use skeleton screens in many modern apps and websites.
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When the real content finishes loading, it replaces the skeleton shapes.
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Skeleton screens improve the user experience by reducing the feeling of waiting.
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throbber: ​​​
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A throbber is a small animated icon that shows a computer is working.
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It usually spins, pulses, or moves in a loop.
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The animation shows that something is loading or processing.
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A throbber does not show how much progress has been made.
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It is often used when the time needed to finish a task is unknown.
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The spinning circle is a common example of a throbber.
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It helps users know that the program has not frozen.
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“Some progress bars continue to inch along even when a process is actually stuck; the idea is to encourage people not to give up. Explore the idea of placebo buttons—such as the “close door” buttons on elevators that almost never close the doors, or pedestrian crossing buttons that don’t have any impact on traffic lights—then discuss with your team: when, if ever, is it okay to mislead people so that they feel better about a process?"
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A placebo button is designed to make people feel like they have control over a situation.
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People are conditioned to believe buttons work because they often press a button and get a result.
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This conditioning makes people keep pressing buttons even when they do not actually work.
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Some elevator “close door” buttons do not work in many modern elevators.
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The doors close automatically, but people think the button made it happen.
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Many crosswalk buttons were disabled after cities started using computer-controlled traffic signals.
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People still press them even though the light changes on a timer.
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In some offices, thermostats on the wall are fake and not connected to the heating or cooling system.
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These fake thermostats help stop workers from constantly complaining about the temperature.
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Placebo buttons work because the human brain likes to connect actions with results.
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When something happens after we press a button, we assume our action caused it.
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These buttons are similar to superstitions or rituals where people believe their actions control events.​
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"Some schemes can be quite elaborate. For instance, one airport discovered that, if planes parked further away so that people had to walk longer to baggage claim, they complained less about waiting for their bags once they got there. They were happier moving along than idling at the carousel, even if the total wait time was the same. Can you think of other situations in which people could be tricked into feeling less impatient?"
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The feeling of waiting can sometimes feel worse than the actual amount of time.
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At a Houston airport, passengers complained about long waits for their baggage.
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Workers reduced the wait time, but passengers still complained.
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Researchers discovered that passengers spent most of their time standing still and waiting.
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The waiting felt worse because people were not doing anything during that time.
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The airport solved the problem by making passengers walk farther to baggage claim.
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This reduced the time people spent standing and waiting.
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After the change, complaints about waiting almost disappeared.
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The actual wait time did not change very much.
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This example shows that active waiting feels shorter than passive waiting.
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When people are busy or moving, the wait feels less frustrating.
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"Designers have discovered that progress bars in apps make users more likely to complete tasks such as surveys and applications. Discuss with your team: is it okay to design interfaces that persuade people to complete actions? Is there a point past which nudging becomes manipulation?
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Progress indicators show users how much of a task is completed and how much is left.
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The idea is similar to systems in role-playing games (RPGs) that show levels, experience points, and progress bars.
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These systems motivate players because they can clearly see their progress and achievements.
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Many games make the first levels quick to complete so new players feel successful early.
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This early success encourages players to continue playing and stay engaged.
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UX designers use the same idea in apps and websites to keep users motivated.
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Progress indicators help reduce frustration by showing that the system is working.
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When users see they are close to finishing a task, they are more likely to complete it.
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"In 1994, the developers of Namco’s Ridge Racer added an Easter egg to their loading screens—a version of the studio’s classic Galaxian game. Google Chrome does something similar: its Dinosaur Game appears when your device goes offline temporarily. In the real world, some restaurants now encourage diners to play games on table-mounted payment terminals (for a fee) while waiting for their food. Discuss with your team: should more processes come with these kinds of “auxiliary games” to help people pass the time?"
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In the past, some video games included playable mini-games during loading screens.
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These mini-games kept players entertained while the main game loaded.
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One famous example was Ridge Racer on the PlayStation, which let players play a small version of Galaxian while waiting.
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In 1995, the company Namco filed a patent for the idea of playable loading screen mini-games.
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Because of this patent, other game developers avoided using interactive loading screens.
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For almost 20 years, most loading screens were not playable.
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Instead, games used other methods like artwork, tips, or animations to keep players busy while waiting.
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The patent expired in 2015, which allowed developers to use playable loading screens again.
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The Chrome Dino game appears when users lose internet connection in the Chrome browser.
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The game was created by the Chrome design team in 2014.
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The game shows a pixel dinosaur called the “Lonely T-Rex.”
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Players press the spacebar to start the dinosaur running and jumping over obstacles.
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The idea was to make being offline less frustrating and more entertaining.
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The dinosaur represents the “prehistoric age,” when there was no Wi-Fi.
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The game is designed as an endless runner, where the player avoids cacti and other obstacles.
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The Chrome Dino game became very popular, with about 270 million games played every month.
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The game can also be played by typing chrome://dino in the browser, even when the internet works.
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Some restaurants place tablets on tables that allow customers to play games while waiting for food.
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These games often charge a small entertainment fee, usually about $1.99.
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Some customers complained because they did not realize the games cost money.
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In some cases, children played the games, and the charge appeared later on the bill.
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One parent noticed a $1.99 fee on his receipt and said he never agreed to pay for the games.
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The tablet allowed children to start games without adult permission.
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In California, parents may not be responsible for purchases made by minors without permission.
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However, Illinois does not have the same law, so the charge may still apply.
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Some restaurants say the fee is optional and requires confirmation on the tablet before playing.
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Customers say restaurants should clearly warn people about the fee to avoid confusion.
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You can’t know if you’re there yet without some way to measure progress; the same is true for entire societies. Learn about the following socioeconomic indicators with your team: what do they try to measure? Then look up the numbers corresponding to your country and discuss with your team: how accurately do they reflect what it’s like to live there? And how should we decide what the end—or goal—of a society i
Gross Domestic Product: ​
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a certain time period.
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GDP is usually measured each year or each quarter.
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Economists use GDP to measure the size and health of a country’s economy.
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When GDP increases, the economy is usually growing.
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When GDP decreases, the economy may be shrinking or in a recession.
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GDP includes consumer spending, business investment, government spending, and exports minus imports.
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Higher GDP often means more jobs and higher income levels.
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GDP does not measure everything about well-being, such as happiness or inequality.
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Governments and economists use GDP to compare economic performance between countries and over time.
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Gross National Income: ​
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Gross National Income (GNI) is the total income earned by a country’s people and businesses in a certain time period.
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GNI includes income earned inside the country and income earned abroad by its citizens and companies.
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It also subtracts income that foreign companies earn inside the country.
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Economists use GNI to understand how much money a country’s residents actually earn.
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GNI is often used to compare the economic wealth of different countries.
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Organizations like the World Bank use GNI to classify countries as low-income, middle-income, or high-income.
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GNI is similar to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) but focuses on who earns the income, not just where production happens.
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A country may have a high GDP but a lower GNI if many profits go to foreign companies.
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Gini Coefficient: ​
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The Gini Coefficient measures how equal or unequal income is in a country.
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It shows how money is distributed among the population.
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The Gini Coefficient ranges from 0 to 1.
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A score of 0 means perfect equality, where everyone earns the same income.
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A score of 1 means perfect inequality, where one person has all the income.
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Countries with a higher Gini Coefficient have greater income inequality.
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Countries with a lower Gini Coefficient have more equal income distribution.
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Economists use the Gini Coefficient to study economic inequality and living standards.
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Human Development Index: ​
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The Human Development Index (HDI) measures the overall development of a country.
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It was created by the United Nations.
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HDI looks at three main factors: health, education, and income.
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Health is measured by life expectancy, or how long people usually live.
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Education is measured by years of schooling and access to education.
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Income is measured by national income per person.
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The HDI score ranges from 0 to 1.
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A higher HDI score means a country has higher human development and better living conditions.
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A lower HDI score means a country has lower development and fewer resources.
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Multidimensional Poverty Index:
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The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) measures poverty in a more detailed way than just income.
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It looks at health, education, and living standards to see how people are deprived.
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Health includes nutrition and child mortality.
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Education includes years of schooling and school attendance.
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Living standards include access to electricity, clean water, sanitation, flooring, cooking fuel, and assets.
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People are considered poor if they are deprived in multiple areas, not just money.
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The MPI helps governments and organizations target specific problems to reduce poverty.
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A higher MPI score means a country has more multidimensional poverty.
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A lower MPI score means a country has less poverty and better living conditions.
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Labor Productivity:
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Labor productivity measures how much output a worker produces in a certain time period.
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It shows how efficiently workers use their time and resources.
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Labor productivity is usually calculated as output per worker or output per hour worked.
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Higher productivity means workers are producing more goods or services in the same amount of time.
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Factors that improve productivity include better technology, training, and working conditions.
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Lower productivity may indicate inefficiency or lack of resources.
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Economists use labor productivity to compare efficiency across countries, industries, or time periods.
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Happiness Index:
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The Happiness Index measures how happy or satisfied people feel with their lives.
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It looks at factors like income, health, social support, freedom, and trust.
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The most well-known report is the World Happiness Report, published by the United Nations.
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A higher score means people are generally more satisfied and happier.
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A lower score means people are generally less satisfied and unhappier.
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Happiness Index helps governments and organizations understand well-being beyond just economic measures.
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It can influence policies on health, education, social services, and quality of life.
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The index shows that money alone does not guarantee happiness; social and environmental factors also matter.
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Passport Index:
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The Passport Index ranks passports based on the number of countries their holders can enter without a visa.
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A higher-ranking passport allows people to travel to more countries freely or with visa-on-arrival.
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The index is updated regularly to reflect changes in visa agreements between countries.
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Passports from countries with strong diplomatic relations usually rank higher.
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A lower-ranking passport may require visas or special permission to enter many countries.
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The Passport Index helps travelers understand travel freedom and mobility.
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It can also reflect a country’s global influence and international relations.
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Big Mac Index:
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The Big Mac Index compares the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac in different countries.
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It is used to measure purchasing power parity (PPP), or how much money can buy the same goods in different countries.
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If a Big Mac costs more in one country than another, the currency may be overvalued.
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If it costs less, the currency may be undervalued.
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The index is simple but helps show differences in cost of living between countries.
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It is published by The Economist.
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Economists use it as a fun, easy-to-understand way to compare economies.
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"The Second Law of Thermodynamics suggests that closed systems always grow more disordered over time. Left to themselves, things get messier: your room won’t clean itself. Yet many people take for granted that the world as a whole should become better over time. “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice,” said Martin Luther King, Jr., a quote that may have preceded and certainly outlived him. But it turns out that this idea that the world improves over time may be a relatively new one (alternate link). Discuss with your team: is the world growing better? Be sure to check out the artist Will Crawford’s answer to this question in this 1909 painting. What would a painting with the same title look like today?"
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The idea that humans can create progress and make the world better is a relatively new belief in history.
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Long ago, most people believed that life followed cycles or was controlled by higher powers, not that humans could improve their future.
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The belief in progress began mainly in Europe between the time of Christopher Columbus and Isaac Newton.
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People had to overcome the belief that ancient wisdom was always better than new ideas.
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The printing press and new scientific tools helped people question old authority and test ideas with evidence.
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The Royal Society’s motto, “nullius verba” (“on no one’s word”), showed the new focus on evidence instead of tradition.
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Over time, leaders and thinkers began to see that knowledge could build on itself and improve life.
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By the 18th century, many people accepted that science and technology could drive economic and social progress.
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Some thinkers worried that progress could bring problems, but many realized that risks are part of progress and still worth trying.
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Progress is not guaranteed; it depends on beliefs, effort, and a willingness to challenge old ideas.
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​Surely the World is Growing Better (1909):
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The artist, Will Crawford, was a famous American illustrator known for his work in Puck and Life magazines.
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He uses a cross-section view so you can see above the clouds and deep under the sea all at the same time.
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The flying machines are early versions of aeroplanes and hydroplanes which were new inventions.
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The big red ship at the top is a Zeppelin (2025 WSC reference), which was a massive airship used to carry bombs.
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Under the water, he drew submersibles and torpedoes to show how war was compared to old-fashioned battles.
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The title is a joke because the picture actually shows the world becoming more violent.
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It mocks the idea of progress by showing that new inventions are just being used for war.
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Crawford often used his art to comment how fast the world was changing during the Industrial Revolution.
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It was made right before World War I to warn people that technology was making killing easier.​
Splash Screen Example
Throbber Example
Surely the World is Growing Better

